The Leviathan
A weekly read on what the smart money is pricing. One tight briefing on the biggest whale moves of the week, the cross-venue spreads worth watching, and the catalysts on next week's tape.
Drop your email · New issue every Sunday
Read by traders at Polymarket, Kalshi, and a few funds we're not allowed to name.
/ what's inside
Four sections. Ten minutes. Everything that matters.
Whale Board
The week's biggest wallet moves on Polymarket and Kalshi — entries, exits, and conviction.
Spread Watch
Cross-venue mispricings worth a look. Same event, different price, different size.
Catalyst Calendar
What's on the tape next week — Fed prints, court rulings, sports finals, earnings.
Resolution Risk
The fine print that decides the payout. Every Sunday: which markets have shaky resolution sources, ambiguous wording, or contested settlement risk.
/ archive
Recent posts
Jun 14, 2026
The catalyst calendar nobody's pricing in
Three macro prints next week the prediction markets are still mispricing — and the wallets quietly positioning ahead of each one.
Jun 7, 2026
Resolution risk on the election market everyone's holding
The phrasing is ambiguous, the resolution source is contested, and the smart money is exiting. Here's what they're seeing.
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